الأراضي المقدسة الخضراء / GHLands
A new report issued by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in cooperation with the UK Met Office has warned that global temperatures are expected to continue rising over the next five years, approaching near-record levels as climate change accelerates worldwide.
According to the annual report, which provides forecasts for temperature and rainfall patterns across different regions, the global average near-surface temperature is projected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels during the period from 2026 to 2030.
Melissa Seabrook, a researcher at the UK Met Office, said current climate indicators clearly demonstrate that the Earth's climate is continuing to warm, noting that scientific evidence points to a persistent rise in global temperatures year after year.
The report comes as countries continue efforts to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists have warned that exceeding this threshold is associated with increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather events.
In the same context, researchers cautioned that a major El Niño event could develop this year, potentially becoming one of the strongest climate phenomena recorded in more than 150 years. Such an event could intensify heatwaves and disrupt weather patterns across large parts of the world.
The report also projects that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 is likely to surpass the record global temperature reached in 2024, the first year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
However, Seabrook stressed that a temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C threshold in a single year does not mean that the Paris Agreement has failed, as the agreement’s targets are measured over long-term averages spanning several decades. Nevertheless, repeated exceedances would signal a diminishing likelihood of keeping global warming within the agreed limits.
The report further highlighted the Arctic region, where winter temperatures are expected to rise at more than three times the global average rate over the next five years, reaching approximately 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline.
It warned that continued warming in the Arctic will accelerate sea ice loss, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas. The report also noted that rising Arctic temperatures could disrupt global weather systems and contribute to more intense extreme weather events, especially across northern regions of the world.
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