Study Warns of the Dead Sea's Rapid Shrinkage as Scientists Raise Alarm Over Its "Gradual Death"

 

A recent scientific study has warned of the accelerating deterioration of the Dead Sea, revealing that it has lost 41.8% of its surface area over the past five decades. Researchers caution that the continued decline in water levels could trigger severe environmental, geological, and economic consequences in the coming decades.

Published in the peer-reviewed journal Water, the study describes the Dead Sea as undergoing a process of "gradual death," driven by the continuous drop in water levels and the steady contraction of its surface area.

Satellite Analysis Reveals Unprecedented Decline

The research team, composed of Jordanian scientists, analyzed satellite imagery alongside advanced mathematical and climate models to examine changes in the Dead Sea between 1971 and 2022.

Their findings show that the Dead Sea lost 41.8% of its surface area during that period, while its water level has continued to decline steadily over recent decades.

The study projects that the water level will fall by approximately 12.6 meters by 2034, with the cumulative decline reaching nearly 33 meters by 2050—equivalent to the height of a ten-story building.

Researchers also warn that the ongoing decline will accelerate shoreline retreat and increase the formation of sinkholes, one of the region's most serious geological hazards.

Sinkholes Pose a Growing Geological Threat

According to the study, the falling water level is the primary driver behind the formation of sinkholes around the Dead Sea.

As the shoreline recedes, previously submerged land becomes exposed, revealing thick underground salt layers. Fresh groundwater then seeps into these deposits, gradually dissolving the salt and creating underground cavities. Once these voids become too large to support the overlying ground, the surface suddenly collapses, forming sinkholes that can reach tens of meters in diameter.

The expansion of these sinkholes has rendered large sections of the coastline unusable, damaged roads and infrastructure, and significantly altered the surrounding landscape.

More Than 6,000 Sinkholes Recorded

Dr. Lina Salameh, a specialist in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at the University of Jordan and one of the study's co-authors, said that more than 6,000 sinkholes have already been documented around the Dead Sea basin.

She explained that the research did not identify a specific water level at which sinkholes begin to form. Instead, it found a direct relationship between falling water levels and increasing sinkhole activity, meaning that every additional decline in the Dead Sea's level is likely to expand both the number and geographical extent of sinkholes, intensifying environmental and geological damage.

Human Activity Identified as the Main Cause

Dr. Ibrahim Farhan, a specialist in soil applications, GIS, and remote sensing and a co-author of the study, emphasized that while climate change has intensified the crisis through higher temperatures, increased evaporation, and changing rainfall patterns, it is not the primary cause of the Dead Sea's decline.

According to the study, four major human-induced factors are responsible.

The first is the construction of multiple dams on the Yarmouk River, which has significantly reduced water flowing into the Jordan River and ultimately into the Dead Sea.

The second is the diversion and intensive use of Jordan River water for agricultural, industrial, and municipal purposes by neighboring countries, cutting off the Dead Sea's principal freshwater source.

A third factor involves regional dams and water infrastructure projects in Jordan, including the Hadda, Ziglab, Wadi Al-Arab, Kufranjah, King Talal, Al-Walah, and Mujib dams. These projects have intercepted surface runoff that once naturally replenished the Dead Sea basin.

The fourth factor is the expansion of irrigated agriculture and intensive groundwater extraction throughout the Jordan Valley, which has reduced the natural groundwater discharge feeding the Dead Sea.

Environmental and Economic Risks Continue to Grow

The researchers warn that if these trends continue, the shoreline will retreat even farther than current projections suggest, leading to an expansion of sinkhole-prone areas and increasing risks to roads, infrastructure, and nearby agricultural land.

They also caution that the decline threatens the unique hydrological and geomorphological characteristics of the ecosystems surrounding the Dead Sea, potentially affecting biodiversity and long-term investment in the region.

Scientists Warn the Dead Sea Could Become a "Dwarf Lake"

Dr. Jawad Al-Bakri, a researcher in the Department of Land, Water, and Environment at the University of Jordan and a co-author of the study, warned that if current conditions persist, the vast Dead Sea could eventually shrink into what he described as a "dwarf lake" compared with its historic size.

He added that another major concern is the possible disappearance of the southern basin, which is extensively used for potash extraction, posing significant economic and investment risks to the region.

Red Sea–Dead Sea Project Remains the Leading Proposal

The researchers identified the long-discussed Red Sea–Dead Sea Conveyance Project as the most viable option for mitigating the crisis. The proposal involves constructing pipelines or canals to transfer water from the Red Sea to replenish the Dead Sea and offset its growing water deficit.

However, Dr. Al-Bakri noted that the project faces substantial obstacles, including its enormous financial cost, regional and geopolitical complexities, and the need for comprehensive scientific studies to ensure that mixing Red Sea water with the Dead Sea would not alter the latter's unique chemical composition.

Long-Term Solutions Require Regional Cooperation

Dr. Salameh stressed that while the Red Sea–Dead Sea project could help mitigate some of the impacts, it is unlikely to reverse the Dead Sea's long-term decline on its own.

She emphasized that any sustainable solution must also address the root causes of the crisis through comprehensive transboundary water-sharing agreements, the restoration of environmental water flows, sustainable groundwater management, and stricter regulation of mineral extraction.

According to the researchers, only an integrated regional approach can help preserve one of the world's most unique natural landmarks and slow the ongoing deterioration of the Dead Sea.