GHLands :The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that El Niño conditions have now developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to intensify rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events across many parts of the world.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO said current indicators point to El Niño strengthening into a strong event between July and September 2026, based on forecasts issued by the world's leading global climate prediction centers.
Continued Warming Across the Tropical Pacific
The organization said climate models indicate a continued and significant rise in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in the key monitoring regions.
The WMO added that forecasting models show a high degree of agreement, increasing confidence in the outlook. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening throughout the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its impacts extending to many regions around the globe. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are also forecast to remain above average.
Seasonal Outlook Incorporates Multiple Climate Drivers
The organization noted that the monthly update complements its comprehensive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update issued on June 2. The report provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by taking into account several climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, conditions in the tropical Atlantic, and the evolving El Niño event.
WMO Calls for Stronger Early Warning Systems
WMO Secretary-General Professor Celeste Saulo said that El Niño conditions have already emerged and are expected to intensify rapidly into a strong event, in line with the organization's forecasts.
She warned that the strengthening phenomenon will increase the likelihood of droughts, heavy rainfall, land-based heatwaves, and marine heatwaves across many parts of the world.
Saulo added that the WMO has launched an unprecedented coordination effort across the United Nations system and at the regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors. She stressed the importance of providing advanced seasonal forecasts and effective early warning systems to help save lives and reduce the economic and social impacts of extreme weather events.
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